PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:No one expects a judge’s rollback of Georgia’s abortion ban to be the last word

SAVANNAH,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Ga. (AP) — When a Georgia judge overturned the state’s abortion ban this week, abortion rights advocates praised the ruling and opponents denounced it — all knowing the state’s top court could put it on hold in coming days or weeks.

Any changes to abortion policy in Southern states could have an impact that resonates beyond their borders. Most states in the region have bans in place, forcing women who are seeking abortion procedures to travel to obtain them.

So as long as the ban is lifted, it could change abortion-related travel patterns. And the ruling puts another spotlight on a contested state in this year’s presidential election, in which Democrats have sought to make abortion a major issue.

Here’s a look at where things stand.

What was the ruling?

Georgia’s abortion law violates women’s rights to liberty and privacy guaranteed by the state constitution, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ruled Monday.

Since 2022, the law effectively prohibited abortions beyond six weeks of pregnancy, which is before women often know they’re pregnant. That’s the point when cardiac activity in an embryo’s cells can be detected by ultrasound. The law banned abortions once a “detectable human heartbeat” was present — with some exceptions.

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McBurney ruled that the law infringed on the liberty “of a woman to control her own body, to decide what happens to it and in it, and to reject state interference with her healthcare choices.” He also wrote that Georgia gives women a constitutional right to privacy that includes making personal health decisions.

The judge wrote that his ruling reverts Georgia’s abortion law to its prior status, which allowed abortions until viability, which is generally considered to be about 22 to 24 weeks’ gestational age.

It was the judge’s second ruling striking down the same law. In 2022, McBurney declared the law invalid because it was enacted by state lawmakers in 2019, when Roe v. Wade still protected abortion rights nationally.

The Georgia Supreme Court overturned that earlier ruling and sent the case back to McBurney to consider the merits of other legal arguments raised by abortion providers challenging the law. That paved the way for the Monday ruling.

What’s next in the courts?

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, blasted the ruling, saying: “Once again, the will of Georgians and their representatives has been overruled by the personal beliefs of one judge.”

Republican state Attorney General Chris Carr planned an immediate appeal to the state Supreme Court, a spokesperson said.

Advocates on both sides of the abortion debate in Georgia noted the state’s high court could keep McBurney’s order from taking effect while the state’s appeal is pending.

It took the Georgia Supreme Court just over a week to overrule McBurney and reinstate the law after it was struck down the first time, in November 2022.

What does this mean for people seeking abortions?

Georgia clinic officials told The Associated Press that they would accept patients whose pregnancies are past six weeks’ gestation — and also that they know the ban could be reimposed quickly.

That could make a big difference in the state. There were about 4,400 abortions monthly in Georgia before the ban took effect, and there have been about 2,400 monthly since then, according to estimates from the Society of Family Planning.

Allowing more abortions could mean that more women who want them can obtain them. It could also ease the flow of patients to clinics in other states, particularly North Carolina, the closest place where abortion is legal further into pregnancy. The Guttmacher Institute estimated that nearly 6,000 Georgia residents traveled to North Carolina for abortions last year.

How does Georgia fit into the national abortion landscape?

Most Southern states have abortion bans that are either similar to the one overturned in Georgia or that are in effect at all stages of pregnancy.

So when a state lifts a ban, it could become a destination for people from nearby states seeking abortion. It’s not clear whether that will happen in Georgia, given the possibility the state Supreme Court could reinstate the ban.

Even before this week, Georgia, a hotly contested state in the presidential election, has been a flashpoint in the political debate over abortion.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris traveled there last month to highlight reporting that two women in the state died after they didn’t get proper medical treatment for complications from taking abortion pills to end their pregnancies. The vice president used the occasion to blast her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, for appointing justices to the U.S. Supreme Court who cleared the way for states to impose bans.

After Monday’s ruling, it leaves 13 states with bans on abortion at all stages of pregnancy and three that bar them after the first six weeks or so of pregnancy.

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Mulvihill reported from Cherry Hill, New Jersey.